Introduction
The South China Sea has been a flashpoint for global geopolitical tensions for the past few decades. The strategic location of this maritime region and its natural resources have made it the subject of territorial disputes between multiple regional powers, including China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia. Since World War II, many military analysts have predicted that there would be another world war at some point in the future. That prediction is now coming to fruition with a new conflict brewing in The South China Sea. The countries mentioned above have conflicting claims on islands and reefs in the region, escalating tensions among all parties involved in these territorial disputes. This article will explain how this conflict will affect the rest of the world, the various sides involved in this dispute, and how it could escalate into a full-blown war.
Why is there a conflict in the South China Sea?
The South China Sea has been a flashpoint for global geopolitical tensions for the past few decades. The strategic location of this maritime region and its natural resources have made it the subject of territorial disputes between multiple regional powers, including China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia. The dispute over the South China Sea’s islands and reefs stretch back to at least the 1990s, when China first laid claim to the Spratly Islands. The Spratly Islands are a group of South China islands with rich oil and natural gas reserves.
In 1999, China published a book called the “Armed Forces Manual”, which included a claim on the Spratly Islands. During the 2000s, numerous protests across Southeast Asia against Chinese incursions into the disputed South China Sea islands. In 2010, the Philippines filed an arbitration suit against China over the dispute. In 2013, the Chinese government established an Air Defense Identification Zone over the South China Sea. In 2016, an international tribunal ruled that China has no rights over the South China Sea.
Which nations are involved in this dispute?
The dispute over the South China Sea’s islands and reefs stretch back to at least the 1990s when China first laid claim to the Spratly Islands. The Spratly Islands are a group of South China islands with rich oil and natural gas reserves. China claims that its rights over the Spratly Islands are based on the “9-Dash Line”, a demarcation line drawn by the Chinese government in 1947 that extends south from China’s Hainan Island to encompass all of the Spratly Islands and the entire South China Sea.
China’s “9-Dash Line” was never endorsed by any international law and was rejected by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and other Southeast Asian countries have also made claims on the Spratly Islands, citing various historical reasons. The Philippines claims that China’s “9-Dash Line” is inconsistent with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). China’s “9-Dash Line” is also inconsistent with the discovery rule of the UNCLOS. China’s “9-Dash Line” is also inconsistent with the UNCLOS’s Inventive Extension Rule (IET).
Escalation to all-out war?
The dispute over the South China Sea’s islands and reefs stretch back to the 1990s, when China first claimed the Spratly Islands. The Spratly Islands are a group of South China islands with rich oil and natural gas reserves. China claims that its rights over the Spratly Islands are based on the “9-Dash Line”, a demarcation line drawn by the Chinese government in 1947 that extends south from China’s Hainan Island to encompass all of the Spratly Islands and the entire South China Sea. China’s “9-Dash Line” was never endorsed by any international law and was rejected by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.
The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and other Southeast Asian countries have also claimed the Spratly Islands, citing various historical reasons. The Philippines claims that China’s “9-Dash Line” is inconsistent with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). China’s “9-Dash Line” is also inconsistent with the discovery rule of the UNCLOS. China’s “9-Dash Line” is also inconsistent with the UNCLOS’s Inventive Extension Rule (IET).
What will be the impact of war in The South China Sea?
The dispute over the South China Sea’s islands and reefs stretches back to at least the 1990s when China first laid claim to the Spratly Islands. The Spratly Islands are a group of South China islands with rich oil and natural gas reserves. China claims that its rights over the Spratly Islands are based on the “9-Dash Line”, a demarcation line drawn by the Chinese government in 1947 that extends south from China’s Hainan Island to encompass all of the Spratly Islands and the entire South China Sea. China’s “9-Dash Line” was never endorsed by any international law and was rejected by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and other Southeast Asian countries have also claimed the Spratly Islands, citing various historical reasons. The Philippines claims that China’s “9-Dash Line” is inconsistent with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Escalation to all-out war?
The South China Sea is a strategically significant region home to approximately $5 trillion worth of trade each year. The global economy would suffer significantly if this region were cut off from the rest due to military conflict. Even though the risk of all-out war in this region is relatively low, it’s essential to be aware of the implications such a war would have on the rest of the world. Any military conflict in this region could have disastrous consequences for the global economy. In addition to the economic impact, a war in the South China Sea would also likely involve the use of nuclear weapons by one or more of the warring parties. The South China Sea is close enough to the major population centers of East Asia that any nuclear exchange in the region would almost certainly result in massive civilian casualties.
Escalation to War: Possibilities and Consequences
One of the most significant risks of a war in the South China Sea is that it could escalate into a more significant conflict involving several major global powers. At this point, three potential scenarios could lead to a wider war: – Territorial escalation: This is when one of the actors involved in the dispute attempts to forcefully seize control of contested territory, leading to a full-blown military conflict.
This is the most likely scenario that could lead to a wider war, and all of the parties involved in the dispute have already made moves in this direction. – Great power intervention: This is when one of the major powers in the rest of the world intervenes in the conflict to protect their interests.
This is less likely than a territorial escalation, but it is still a possibility that we should be wary of. – Unintentional escalation: This is when an escalator incident in the South China Sea unintentionally cascades into a larger conflict. This is less likely than the previous two scenarios, but it remains a danger that we should take seriously.
Why Will There Be a War in the South China Sea?
The rising tensions in the South China Sea are partly due to China’s increased assertiveness towards its neighbors. In recent years, China has increased its military presence in the region and has made multiple aggressive claims regarding the ownership of islands and reefs in the South China Sea. China has also built artificial islands in the South China Sea to assert its claims in the region. Although China is within its rights to do this within its own territory, it has caused alarm among other regional powers due to their proximity to other countries’ maritime borders.
The South China Sea dispute has also been exacerbated by the withdrawal of the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The TPP was a free trade agreement between 12 Pacific Rim countries to counteract China’s rising economic influence. Due to the United States’ withdrawal from the TPP, China has emerged as the dominant economic power in the region. This has led several Asian countries to increase their economic cooperation with each other to counter Chinese economic dominance.
The US Interest in the South China Sea
China’s economic and military rise has led it to become a regional power attempting to displace the United States as the world’s leading superpower. To maintain its status as a global power, the United States has established multiple strategic partnerships with Asian countries in order to counter Chinese influence in the region. One of these partnerships is the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD) consisting of the United States, Australia, Japan, and India.
The QSD has been an anti-Chinese initiative since its inception in 2007. The United States’ involvement in the South China Sea dispute is motivated by its desire to contain China’s rise as a global power. In recent years, the United States has pursued a strategy of “rolling back” Chinese influence in the Asia-Pacific region by strengthening its strategic partnerships in the region. The United States’ involvement in the South China Sea dispute is a continuation of this strategy.
Conclusion
The South China Sea has been a flashpoint for global geopolitical tensions for the past few decades. The strategic location of this maritime region and its natural resources have made it the subject of territorial disputes between multiple regional powers, including China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia. Since World War II, many military analysts have predicted that there would be another world war at some point in the future.
That prediction is now coming to fruition with a new conflict brewing in The South China Sea. The countries mentioned above have conflicting claims on islands and reefs in the region, which has led to escalating tensions among all parties involved in these territorial disputes. This article has explained how this conflict will affect the rest of the world, the various sides involved in this dispute, and how it could escalate into a full-blown war
