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Indonesia After Jokowi

In this essay, I want to discuss what happened in Indonesia after Jokowi was no longer the President of the Republic of Indonesia. Currently, Jokowi has been President for two terms. His son and son-in-law have also been elected and inaugurated as mayors in Solo and Medan.

He is the only President in Indonesia who does not have a party, is directly elected by the people, involves his son and son-in-law as leaders, starts his career from the region (Solo) to the capital city of Jakarta, finally becomes the number one person in this republic.

During Jokowi’s leadership, the Indonesian people have experienced positive changes in development. When I traveled around Indonesia, especially in Eastern Indonesia, the people liked Jokowi because he had built infrastructure in the region. When refueling in Boven Digoel (Papua), the price of Pertamax is the same as in Banda Aceh. The terrain that is passed to Boven Digoel is not the same as the terrain in the city of Banda Aceh, as one of the westernmost cities in Indonesia.

However, during Jokowi’s leadership, the country experienced the most economic and political turmoil. This country is also always “noisy” with socio-religious issues. Luckily, Jokowi’s strategy is to embrace NU as Jokowi is a religious shield in dealing with every crucial problem based on religious and political issues. Therefore, during Jokowi’s leadership, NU became one of the “golden boys” within his government.

Jokowi’s government has also succeeded in “controlling” the parliament in Senayan. It was mastering several assets initially under the control of foreign parties—restoring the air sovereignty previously “controlled” by the Singapore government—bringing investment from China. When Jokowi took office, China’s relationship with Indonesia was very cordial, even though the issue of Natuna and its surroundings was being turbulent in the South China Sea. I have seen at a glance how the portrait of Chinese investment in Sulawesi Island.

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Source: bbc.com

The question is, what will be the picture of Indonesia after Jokowi is no longer President. Here, there are four exciting issues to examine. First, whoever becomes President of Indonesia in 2024, will undoubtedly face the problem of “global balance.” At that time, Indonesia would be one of the countries still invited to cooperate with developed countries, which took advantage of the country’s natural wealth. Foreigners are not interested in the Indonesian people, politics, and the economy, but they are interested in natural resources. So, the process of seizing Indonesia as a target for controlling nature will begin precisely when the strong candidate will be the leader, after Jokowi.

The concept of “global balance” was triggered by China’s desire to dominate the economy in ASEAN. Global dependence on China’s economic power will influence Indonesia’s loyalty to the Chinese government. If this happens, then Indonesia after Jokowi will not experience significant changes. Whomever, the president, is, keep on entering the “form of investment” to restore economic conditions from China.

The other impact is that the people’s situation will not change anything in 2024. Because the presidential election process in 2024 is to satisfy the concept of “global balance” rather than people’s welfare. Therefore, the idea of ​​moving the capital city to the island of Borneo was a smart move to place the center of the republic’s power in the very center of the archipelago. The relocation of the capital city can also be interpreted as the transfer of power and strength from Jakarta and all its supporters to fulfill strategic steps to face “global balance.”

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The second is Indonesia after Jokowi will escalate the conflict between supporters who have been fighting for political power. The strategy of  Jokowi to appoint Prabowo as Minister of Defense is a very effective symbolic strategy. Of course, the Islamic group used by Prabowo against Jokowi felt humiliated by Prabowo’s interest during the election. This group will certainly not remain silent to seek revenge in 2024. When the community movement does not have a role model, the group will be readily ignited for anyone’s interests.

Thus, Indonesia after Jokowi will not experience any changes, especially the position of the Islamic movement in front of government power. Arrests will continue. Anyone deemed too “noisy” would rest in prison, especially those able to mobilize the masses. As for state security, those arrested can always mobilize the masses, threaten national stability, and leak state secrets to foreign countries. can always, Therefore,,, those who were “noisy” during the Jokowi administration will not be released in 2024. Whatever they “shout” will end up in the Court Office. So, the public’s attention after Jokowi will not change at all. The law is used to silence the three groups above, which can cause chaos in the country.

The third is distributing power and power from the military and police groups into the government. Once again, Jokowi is successful with a model like this. He placed people he knew in strategic positions for state security and safety affairs. These figures also “guard” Jokowi’s interests when acting as head of state and head of government. Important figures during the Jokowi administration in defense and security matters were those who were quite close to Jokowi or close to people who were very close to Jokowi himself. So, they protect the country and, most importantly, protect Jokowi and everything about him.

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In the future, whoever replaces Jokowi’s position will have to see how the internal of  TNI and Polri. So far, the institution’s loyalty to the state is unquestionable. However, the existence of groups that are not visible within the TNI and Polri, which will get power from the palace, is another thing that must be looked at in-depth by future leaders after Jokowi.

The fourth is the ability of diplomacy at the regional and international stage. Currently, Indonesia plays a somewhat important role, although Indonesia is not seen as a “giant” in the eyes of developed countries. Indonesia is a country that has become an international market. Anything sold in Indonesia will sell well. The consumptive spirit of Indonesian society cannot be controlled at all.

Nevertheless, more than that, Indonesia’s global role must take more benefit, rather than being used by foreign parties. Therefore, the leading figure after Jokowi must understand the global situation and have the ability to make strategic decisions for the national interest. That way, Indonesia is still considered globally when any party cannot control its leader internationally.

Kamaruzzaman Bustamam Ahmad

Kamaruzzaman Bustamam-Ahmad (KBA) has followed his curiosity throughout life, which has carried him into the fields of Sociology of Anthropology of Religion in Southeast Asia, Islamic Studies, Sufism, Cosmology, and Security, Geostrategy, Terrorism, and Geopolitics. KBA is the author of over 30 books and 50 academic and professional journal articles and book chapters. His academic training is in social anthropology at La Trobe University, Islamic Political Science at the University of Malaya, and Islamic Legal Studies at UIN Sunan Kalijaga Yogyakarta. He received many fellowships: Asian Public Intellectual (The Nippon Foundation), IVLP (American Government), Young Muslim Intellectual (Japan Foundation), and Islamic Studies from Within (Rockefeller Foundation). He is based in Banda Aceh and can be reached at ceninnets@yahoo.com.au

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